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🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟣 30% Tornado Risk (Strong/Violent Tornadoes Likely): Memphis, TN, Jonesboro, AR, Pine Bluff, AR, Bartlett, TN, Southaven, MS
🔴 15% Tornado Risk: Louisville, KY, Little Rock, AR, Evansville, IN, Clarksville, TN, Bloomington, IN
🟠 10% Tornado Risk: Indianapolis, IN, Nashville, TN, St. Louis, MO, Cincinnati, OH, Lexington-Fayette, KY
🟤 5% Tornado Risk: Chicago, IL, Dallas, TX, Detroit, MI, Columbus, OH, Milwaukee, WI
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: Fort Worth, TX, Pittsburgh, PA, Madison, WI, Huntsville, AL, Waco, TX

What the Percentages Mean
The 30% tornado risk zone spans over 33,000 square miles. If you’re inside this zone, you have a 1 in 3 chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of you, with a significant likelihood of strong to violent (EF2–EF5) tornadoes.
The 15% and 10% zones also represent serious risk areas—notable for tornado outbreaks, including long-track tornadoes.
Even the 5% and 2% areas cover tens of millions of people and large metro areas—tornadoes remain possible.

📝 Overview
A major severe weather outbreak is expected today and tonight, particularly across the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. Numerous tornadoes are likely—including multiple EF3+ tornadoes—alongside damaging wind swaths and very large hail.

📌 Regional Notes
🟣 High Risk Zone (Memphis area eastward): Strong potential for long-track, destructive tornadoes
🟠 Moderate Risk Zone (Western KY, southern IN): Several strong tornadoes likely with a mix of supercells and clusters
🟢 Southern Plains (TX/OK): Overnight large hail threat possible as front stalls and redevelops

🕓 Timeline
Morning to Midday: Ongoing storms continue through AR, MO, and parts of OK/TX
Afternoon (2–5 PM CDT): Strong to intense supercells form across eastern AR, western TN/KY, northern MS
Evening (5–9 PM CDT): Tornado threat peaks across the Mid-South—Memphis, Jonesboro, western KY, and northwest MS most at risk
Overnight (9 PM – 2 AM CDT): Clusters, supercells, and bowing segments continue through the Ohio Valley
Late Overnight: Storms weaken into the Appalachians by early morning

⛈️ Hazards Include
🌪️ Tornadoes – Numerous expected, including strong/violent (EF3+)
💨 Damaging wind gusts over 75 mph
🧊 Very large hail up to 3 inches

SPC Risk Level: HIGH (Level 5 of 5)
📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🔴 HIGH Risk (2.7M people): Memphis, TN, Jonesboro, AR, Pine Bluff, AR, Bartlett, TN, Southaven, MS
🟠 MODERATE Risk (5.5M people): Louisville, KY, Little Rock, AR, Evansville, IN, Clarksville, TN, Bloomington, IN
🟡 ENHANCED Risk (41.3M people): Chicago, IL, Dallas, TX, Indianapolis, IN, Columbus, OH, Fort Worth, TX
🟢 SLIGHT Risk (20.1M people): Detroit, MI, Milwaukee, WI, Cleveland, OH, Akron, OH, Grand Rapids, MI
🟢 MARGINAL Risk (12.8M people): Tulsa, OK, Pittsburgh, PA, Madison, WI, Huntsville, AL, Killeen, TX

⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
If you are in or near the High Risk or Moderate Risk areas, this is a potentially life-threatening day.
Have multiple ways to receive warnings, shelter plans ready, and act immediately if a warning is issued.

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